A very active pattern is taking shape heading towards the end of the week. Abundant moisture and instability appear to be in place for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, potentially severe. Today is going to be a toasty one. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud and a high of 28. Tonight features a partly cloudy sky and a low of 15.
Things really start to get interesting tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing somewhere in southern Manitoba in the morning. This activity will be the leftovers from severe storms the previous night in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Saskatchewan. Some hail, heavy rain, and strong wind gusts may accompany the strongest activity tomorrow morning.
There will likely be plenty of clouds around tomorrow. Some afternoon sunshine will be key in allowing the atmosphere to destabilize and re-charge from any morning convection. Another round of storms is expected to develop late in the day. That may happen in southern Manitoba or North Dakota, maybe both. All modes of severe weather would be possible, including a slight risk of a tornado. This does have the potential to be a significant storm event in the region, depending on how things play out. Storm potential would carry over into tomorrow evening.
Friday may very well provide a break in the action. The highest threat of storms, at this point, appears to be south of the border. A mix of sun and cloud is in the forecast with a high of 25. A shower or storm may occur on Friday night. The active pattern continues into the weekend. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday with a high of 25.
A low pressure system lifts into southern Manitoba on Sunday. Showers are possible and there is a risk of a thunderstorm. Expect a high of 24. Early indications are that the active weather pattern may continue into early next week. There's a chance of showers on Monday with a high of 24. Tuesday features a mix of sun and cloud and a high of 24 again. A shower or two can't be ruled out.
The image below is from the GFS forecast model. It is valid at 7pm tomorrow evening and shows widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting southern Manitoba. If the atmosphere destabilizes sufficiently, this activity may be severe.
Main focus is on the active pattern taking shape later this week and into the weekend. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be advected northward and set the stage for multiple threats of showers and thunderstorms. For today, expect a mix of sun and cloud, a light south wind, and a high of 25. It'll be partly cloudy tonight with a low of 13.
We warm up a bit more tomorrow. It's going to be mostly sunny with a south wind and a high of 27 degrees. Models are hinting at some convection developing in North Dakota tomorrow night. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the region with a low of 15. The best storm potential look to hold off until the next day.
Models agree on a shortwave moving into southern Manitoba on Thursday. There is likely to be shower and storm activity ongoing in southwestern Manitoba and parts of North Dakota in the morning. The Storm Prediction Centre has southern Manitoba under a slight risk of severe weather. Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday night. Severe potential will need to be monitored. Thursday's high is 25.
An energetic pattern continues to be advertised at the end of the week. More energy will continue to eject from a slow moving western trough. A shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out on Friday, although the best potential may reside south of the border. Expect a high of 25. Saturday looks much the same. A shower or storm is possible with a high of 26 degrees.
The near normal temperatures continue for the rest of the period with hard to time waves moving through. Sunday and Monday both feature a mix of sun and cloud and highs around 25. There may be a shower around on either day. Stay tuned for more on the severe storm potential in the coming days.
Nice weather is expected today and tomorrow before an unsettled pattern takes shape. We are entering the prime time for thunderstorms in southern Manitoba. Some of the most significant storm events in the province's history have occurred in late June.
Ridge of high pressure is building into southern Manitoba early this week and will lead to temperatures near or slightly above normal in the days to come. An active thunderstorm pattern may very well take shape late this week, possibly into the weekend. For today, expect a mix of sun and cloud, a north wind, and a high of 22. With a cold pool aloft, there is a chance of a shower or two this afternoon.
The best coverage of shower activity should be in North Dakota and Minnesota later today. Tonight features a partly cloudy sky and a low of 10. Ridging really starts to take control tomorrow. A beautiful day is in store with mostly sun, a light wind, and a high of 25 degrees. Tomorrow night will be mainly clear with a low of 13.
Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday. Ridge will remain in place over southern Manitoba but models are advertising some instability developing in the afternoon. Not really seeing much in the way of a trigger for thunderstorm formation but a shower or storm can't be ruled out late in the day. Wednesday's high is 26.
Ridge starts weakening late in the week as western trough inches eastward. This may mark the beginning of an active pattern for southern Manitoba as moisture and instability increase. A shower or thunderstorm is possible on Thursday with the high reaching 26. The best potential for storms may arrive on Thursday night as models are showing a complex of some sort nearby.
Slow moving trough continues to affect the region on Friday. Ample moisture and instability leads to a threat of showers and thunderstorms again. Current guidance would suggest a threat of severe weather again but it's too far out to get into specifics. Expect a high of 26 on Friday.
Timing of features becomes murky on the weekend but it appears that an upper low may be situated over southern Manitoba, at least early on. Showers are possible on Saturday with a high of 25. There is a risk of a thunderstorm. Sunday may very well be another unsettled day. Showers are in the forecast with the high reaching 24.
This week will feature a good amount of sunshine, especially the next few days. Thunderstorm potential looks to be on the increase, especially Thursday and Friday. Models continue to paint moderate to high instability in southern Manitoba late this week.
Active pattern is taking shape as we head towards the weekend. Ridging will weaken, allowing an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms in the coming days. Another ridge builds in next week with temperatures rising above normal. For today, expect mostly sun, a light wind, and a high of 25. It'll be mainly clear tonight with a low of 13.
Tomorrow is going to be an unsettled day in southern Manitoba. A frontal boundary will push into southwestern Manitoba tomorrow morning and continue east from there. Moisture increases with dew points in the upper teens expected. There may be some shower or thunderstorm activity around tomorrow morning. A strong south wind is in the forecast with the high reaching 23.
Not sure how much sun we'll see tomorrow, if any. If there is a good period of sun tomorrow afternoon, the atmosphere would be able to destabilize and bring about a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day. At this point, though, it doesn't appear that sufficient clearing is going to happen north of the border. With that being said, some elevated instability is likely to build in and there will be good shear and moisture to work with.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow evening and there is a slight chance of severe weather. Any activity should be east of the region and weakening after midnight. It'll be breezy with a low of 13. Upper low will be off to our northwest this weekend and will gradually push to the southeast. There is a slight chance of showers on Saturday with a risk of a thunderstorm. The forecast high is 24.
Upper low pushes through on Sunday with a better chance of showers in the region. There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Expect a high of 21. Ridge of high pressure builds in next week. Monday features mostly sun and a high of 22. Tuesday will be sunny with a high of 25. Models are hinting at an active pattern developing mid to late next week. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday with the high reaching 27.
The weather of late has been ideal for a round of golf. While there will be some nice periods of weather in the coming days, there is a threat of showers and thunderstorms in the region starting tomorrow.
The quieter weather will persist in the near future before unsettled weather returns at the end of the week. Storm potential is starting to become as clear as mud here in southern Manitoba. For today, expect mostly sun, a north wind, and a high of 25. Tonight features a mostly clear sky and a low of 11.
Another beautiful day in store for us tomorrow with mostly sun in the forecast and a high of 25. It'll be partly cloudy tomorrow night with a low of 12. Attention then shifts to Friday as a frontal boundary approaches. Latest models have trended south in terms of severe thunderstorms. With that being said, there is still going to be a good amount of moisture streaming north into southern Manitoba.
Instability is being advertised but not as much as previous runs. While severe weather appears unlikely at this time, there is still a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Expect a high of 22. An upper low is going to be off to our northwest on Saturday. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud and a high of 23. There is a slight chance of a shower.
Upper low sinks to the southeast on Sunday and there may be a shower or thunderstorm in the region. Sunday's high is 23. High pressure settles in as we head into next week. Monday features mainly sun and a high of 23. It'll be sunny on Tuesday with a high of 25 degrees.
Today and tomorrow are going to be pleasant days in the region. The pattern becomes active on Friday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms increasing. Temperatures will hover near normal throughout the period.
It was on Monday we heard from Cindy Kalansky of Pembina Valley Humane Society. She was enthused about the response to the annual steps for pets walkathon in Carman and Morden. That enthusiasm was well founded as the grand total for the two walks was $16,730.58. you can see pictures of the furry tail wagging participants at
On the heels of a strong storm event in southern Manitoba, quieter weather will be the story for the next few days. The pattern becomes active again heading into the weekend, though, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing by Friday. For today, expect sunshine, a light northwest wind, and a high of 24. It'll be clear tonight with a low of 11.
Ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place tomorrow with more sunshine in the forecast and a high of 25. Tomorrow night features a mostly clear sky and a low of 11 degrees. The quiet weather persists on Thursday. We'll see plenty of sun and a high of 25. Thunderstorms are probable in Saskatchewan throughout the day.
A frontal boundary is expected to push across southern Manitoba on Friday. Models are in agreement showing the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the region. Severe weather is possible as ample moisture, shear, and instability appear to be in place. Timing is a tough call this far in advance but some hefty storms may be in the cards as we wrap up the week. Friday's high is 24.
A strong upper low hangs back this weekend. That may keep us somewhat unsettled. There's a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday with a high of 24. Sunday features a slight chance of a shower or storm and a high of 24 again. Heading into next week, we'll see mostly sun on Monday and a high of 23 degrees.
This was the view that many would have had in the region yesterday. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in parts of southern Manitoba, including large hail, strong wind gusts, and heavy rain. There were even funnel clouds spotted. The next threat of storms is Friday/Friday night.
Convection is occurring in North Dakota late this morning. A frontal boundary will move through the region this afternoon and may allow for the development of more showers and thunderstorms. The storm potential is highly dependent on clouds clearing in the coming hours. Visible satellite imagery does show this happening to our west already.
If instability can increase enough this afternoon, there may be some hail and strong wind gusts to worry about with stronger thunderstorm activity. If we remain cloudy, the potential of storms dramatically decreases. Expect a high today of 21. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. It'll be partly cloudy tonight with a low of 12.
Ridge of high pressure gains control tomorrow. We'll see plenty of sun, a light wind, and a high of 23. Tomorrow night features a mostly clear sky and a low of 11. Another sunny, warm day in store for us on Wednesday. The forecast high is 25 degrees. The beautiful weather continues on Thursday with more sun and a high of 25.
Models are in agreement showing a strong low pressure system and frontal boundary moving through at the end of the week. Early signals show the potential for an organized thunderstorm event in Manitoba as well as North Dakota on Friday. There appears to be plenty of moisture to work with. It's still a ways off but severe weather is a possibility on Friday and/or Friday night.
A tough call regarding what to expect on the weekend. Some forecast models are showing a strong upper low hanging back in central Saskatchewan. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud on both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid twenties expected. There may be a shower around, at times, this weekend.
The image below shows an example of cumulus clouds. These clouds can take on multiple personalities. They signal fair weather but, under the right conditions, can grow into thunderstorms. That may happen later today and again on Friday.
Some shower activity moved through earlier this morning associated with a weak wave dropping southeast. For the rest of the day, expect a mix of sun and cloud and a high of 23. Models hint at some minor instability developing this afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. It'll be partly cloudy tonight with a low of 11. There's a slight chance of an early evening shower.
Clouds increase tomorrow as a frontal boundary moves into southwestern Manitoba. This is far from an impressive set-up in the region as the best support will remain to our west and south. There is a chance of showers along with a south wind and a high of 21. Boundary progresses east tomorrow night and shower chances increase. It's going to be mostly cloudy with a low of 13.
Sunday looks to be an unsettled day in southern Manitoba. Showers are possible with the high reaching 21. Instability is non-existent and that will preclude any thunderstorms. Warmer weather arrives early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Hard to time shortwaves cresting the ridge could lead to periodic threats of precipitation. Monday features a slight chance of showers and a high of 24.
Summer-like pattern anticipated for the remainder of the period with ridging in place. Tuesday features mostly sun and a high of 25. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud on both Wednesday and Thursday with highs around 26 degrees. A shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out on either day as hard to time waves ride up the ridge.
A somewhat gloomy sky will greet us this weekend with a frontal boundary slowly moving through. Some showers are possible before ridging builds in next week with high temperatures in the mid/upper twenties possible.
It's another weekend of Garage Sales in Southern Manitoba. Have you planned a Saturday of reminiscing and rummaging? Al Friesen came across a garage sale with a difference, and here is his experience, via video
