The Red River and its tributaries will see substantial flooding this spring, according to the latest provincial flood forecast issued Monday afternoon.

With normal or average weather conditions, the Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure is now predicting a flood higher than 2009.

With favourable weather, the flood forecast at this stage indicates the Red would rise to 2011 flood levels. 

With unfavourable weather conditions, water levels will be higher than 2009 levels by almost one foot at Emerson, and by 1.5 feet at Ste. Agathe. The actual flood water levels will be dependent on snow melt, as well as snowfall and rainfall in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the Province indicated it has already started its flood preparations including working with local governments in the Red River Valley and City of Winnipeg; Working with the federal government to ensure the safety of Indigenous communities in the Valley; preparing to support municipal evacuations if needed; assembling teams to work with farmers to move livestock out of the impacted area; preparing for closures of community ring dikes, road closures and acquiring additional inventory of flood protection equipment.

Monday's flood update also noted community ring dikes, and the majority of individual flood protection works, are at 1997 plus two feet (61 cm) levels.

The revised flood outlook echoes an updated forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service indicating this spring will be a top 10 run-off year for the Red River that will bring moderate to major flooding in North Dakota. 

"So this is going to be a year where we're going to see water moving across the landscape especially down here on the State side," said National Weather Service Meteorologist Greg Gust. "We're going to have water in the ditches filled up, and we're going to have people needing to pay attention to culverts and trying to prevent that back water that could surround their farms and their homestead."

The chance the Red River will reach major flood stage in Fargo, North Dakota, has increased from 50 percent to 90 percent after last week's snow storms.

Grand Forks has a 95% chance of moderate flooding and a 50% chance the river reaches 50.6 feet, which is still below the record 1997 flood level of 54.35 feet.

There is a 95% chance the community of Pembina will see major flooding at 51 feet.