Environment Canada is calling for a milder than normal winter for southern Manitoba.

But, David Phillips says it could be a tale of two halves. That is because there is an El Nino forming in the Pacific, which is expected to usher in warmer weather.

You might remember the winter of 2016, which ended up being one of the mildest on record, thanks to a very strong El Nino that produced water temperatures two to three degrees warmer than normal. Phillips says this one should be weaker, creating water temperatures of only one degree above normal. He adds it is also taking its time forming.

"It's supposed to grow in intensity as the season goes on," he says. "That's why I'm thinking that the end of winter, February, March into April will be a little kinder, a little gentler than the early part."

Phillips says the development of an El Nino is a bit like a dance. It is an ocean phenomenon that sees warm ocean waters trying to influence the air above. He says right now the atmosphere is spurning the advances of El Nino. But once the two sides connect, the wind patterns will change and there will be more Pacific air waffling across the country, keeping the cold air further north.

And Phillips says, if southern Manitoba is influenced by Pacific air this winter, that should result in less snow. That is because the more Pacific air there is, the fewer Colorado Lows that form, meaning less of the white stuff.

"My sense is the models seem to suggest that precipitation might be a little on the lighter side this winter," says Phillips. "I never would bet the family farm or the fishing fleet on precipitation forecasts, there's just not a lot of skill in that when you are looking ninety days ahead."

Environment Canada defines winter as the months of December, January and February. That means, fall covers the months of September, October and November. Phillips says Steinbach is coming through probably the coldest fall in 20 years. November alone was nearly four degrees below normal. There were 18 days in November where the temperature dipped below -10 degrees when normally there are only 12 of those days.

Phillips says the start of winter could be a bit of a roller coaster ride. The next few days should see near normal temperatures but then next week will see cooler temperatures settle in.