Residents of southern Manitoba can expect a spring that is warmer than normal. Environment Canada issued that forecast this week, but Senior Climatologist David Phillips says American and European forecasters seem to agree.

2017 04 driving range flyin
(Golfers hit the driving range last April at Steinbach Fly-In)According to Phillips, the southern half of the province has just crawled through a winter that saw average temperatures below normal for the months of December, January and February. In fact, February alone averaged four degrees colder than normal, with only one day where the temperature crept above freezing.

The entire winter had 46 days where the temperature dropped below -20 degrees, when an average winter sees 45. However, there were not as many brutally cold days. Phillips says nine times this winter the temperature plunged below -30 degrees, compared to an average winter of 13.

Phillips suggests it was the influence of a La Nina that kept things cold this winter. He notes the La Nina stayed its course with moderate intensity. It also encouraged more cold arctic air to come plunging down. This resulted in Steinbach being colder than the North Pole at times this winter.

But as we flip the calendar, Phillips reminds us that March can have very volatile weather. The tug of war between the cold air not wanting to leave and the warm air wanting to arrive can cause extreme weather. And though Phillips says the art of forecasting precipitation one season at a time is nearly impossible, he reminds us that in a typical winter, Steinbach gets about 25 centimetres of snow after March 1st.