The first Colorado Low of the season has its sights set on parts of Manitoba. But, according to Environment Canada, it right now appears as though the Pembina Valley and Southeastern Manitoba will be spared from the brunt of this storm.

Forecasters have been watching the system for about a week now, though it had previously been too difficult to forecast with certainty. Several weather models disagreed on where exactly the worst of the storm would be.

"It's firming up somewhat," says Jason Knight, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

If the current forecast holds, southern Manitoba will remain to the south of this system. Right now the forecast is calling for the precipitation to begin Sunday evening in the Southwestern corner of the province in the form of rain. With a low of +1 Sunday night, the precipitation is expected to change to snow sometime overnight. It will also be windy.

Knight says for areas of central Manitoba, it's a much different story. For areas between Swan River and Flin Flon and then eastward, 30 centimetres of snow is pretty much a guarantee, with even more possible. Knight says some localized areas could get more like 40 to 50 centimetres of the white stuff.

"And, that's not all," warns Knight. "Out west, we're also becoming increasingly concerned about the chance of organized freezing rain for a substantial portion of Sunday,"

Knight says the system could bring a quickly changing forecast through the weekend.

"Definitely stay tuned," he says. "The track of this system, should it change, is going to start changing forecasts rather dramatically, so we're going to keep a close eye on this one all the way through."