Manitoba's Deputy Chief Provincial Public Health Officer says not enough people have been immunized for effective prevention of a fourth wave of COVID-19 in our province. Dr. Jazz Atwal made that comment while releasing new modelling numbers for COVID-19.

There are 362 active cases of COVID-19 in our province, including 40 new cases announced Tuesday. This is a far cry from mid-May when daily new cases totalled in the neighbourhood of 600.

"Manitoba's seven-day case count at present is low and stable," says Dr. Atwal. "However, right now we're seeing that the majority of new cases are now occurring in people who have not been vaccinated."

He notes of the 27 new cases announced on Monday, 21 of those individuals were not vaccinated.

As of Tuesday, 81.4 per cent of Manitobans born before December 31st, 2009 (the current eligibility criteria) have received one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, while 75.6 per cent of Manitobans born before December 31st, 2009 have received two doses. According to the province, that means one-third of the entire population of Manitoba has not received a single dose of vaccine.

"This could play a significant role in COVID-19 spreading more," says Dr. Atwal.

As of Tuesday, 64 Manitobans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, including 20 people with active COVID-19 as well as 44 people who are no longer infectious. A total of 18 Manitoba patients are receiving intensive care for COVID-19 including five people in intensive care units with active COVID-19.

"At this time, new COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions are relatively stable," adds Dr. Atwal.

However, he notes the numbers are still quite high, and could be significantly impacted if occupancy increased due to a rise in COVID-19 cases.

"At this time deaths related to COVID-19 in Manitoba remain low," he says. "However, people are dying in younger age brackets."

According to Dr. Atwal, a large fourth wave could occur, even with current levels of immunization. That is because some variants, such as Delta spread more quickly, and not enough eligible individuals have been immunized.

"Under the extreme scenario, the model shows that COVID-19 could overwhelm the acute care system within two months after a fourth wave begins," he suggests.

According to the province, while additional beds can be added through cancelled surgeries and other service adjustments, this has negative effects on individuals seeking care.