The province's 2020 Fall Conditions report, released Tuesday morning, confirms the Red River Valley went into freeze-up relatively dry from a potential flood conditions standpoint.

The report indicates soil moisture levels before freeze-up were normal to below normal in most Manitoba basins. Soil moisture heading into winter is one of the major factors that affects spring run-off and potential flood risks.

This year there was minimal Summer and Fall precipitation which has left normal to below normal soil moisture conditions the Red River basin.

Another factor affecting potential spring high water events is the base flow in rivers and the water levels on lakes prior to freeze-up. Base flow is a portion of the stream flow that is not from surface run-off; it is water from the ground, flowing into the river channel over a period of time. Base flows on most rivers are normal to below normal for this time of the year, with the exception of northern Manitoba rivers, where base flows are well above normal to record high.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s December long-term precipitation forecast indicates precipitation will be normal to above normal from December to February for most of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.  Meanwhile, the U.S. National Weather Service outlook indicates above normal precipitation within the U.S. portion of the Red and Souris River basins from December to March.