Winter Storm Warnings continue Tuesday across the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba ahead of the arrival of a significant late season Colorado Low that will bring 15 to 25 cm of heavy snow, strong winds and blowing snow to the region.

"There is no doubt, this strong low pressure system will pack a punch, and we remain confident in the general snowfall totals within those Warning areas," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "The latest forecast model runs are maintaining the general guidance of the far southeastern corner of the province, as well as the eastern half of North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota and northwestern Ontario seeing the most significant impacts from this event."

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As of Tuesday morning, Environment Canada continued Winter Storm Warnings from the Brandon/Killarney region, eastward to the MB/ON border and then well into Ontario, east of the Thunder Bay region.

"This storm is tapping into moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico, and with cold air positioned north of its track, that's the perfect recipe for a substantial snowfall event," explained Sumner. "Based on the current track of the low, I would place the target area for the highest end potential totals from Altona, through Steinbach and the Whiteshell to the Ontario border, and then southeast of that line toward Sprague and Buffalo Point. Again, based on the current guidance, somewhere within that area is most likely to see the highest totals in the province, and could reach the 25 to 30cm range."

According to Environment Canada, as you move westward out of the Red River Valley, and northwest of the line Sumner illustrated, snowfall totals will decrease.

"Western Red River Valley to the Manitoba escarpment, I'd estimate 15 to 20cms by the time this is done, with areas on the far western edge of the current Warnings landing around 10 to 15cm, with the far southwest topping out at 10cms."

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As for timelines, Sumner expects snowfall to begin by late Tuesday afternoon across much of Southern Manitoba, and then continue tonight into Wednesday morning and beyond.

"Right now, it's looking like the bulk of the snowfall, for most regions, will fall between the overnight hours of Tuesday to mid afternoon Wednesday," he noted. "Now that's not to say the snow will just turn off once we get to Wednesday evening. Light snow will continue, and we may still see some flurries Thursday morning."

Beyond the heavy snowfall, strong northerly to northeasterly wind gusts will be part of the storm, with the western Red River Valley and the Manitoba escarpment region projected to see the strongest. Northeasterly winds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h are likely tonight, with gusts up to 70 km/h possible throughout the day Wednesday.

"The escarpment's topography will essentially act like a funnel, and help push up those wind speeds," said Sumner. "The strong winds and falling snow will mean severely reduced visibility, and substantial drifting, in rural areas making travel very difficult."

Meanwhile, in a news release issued late Monday afternoon, Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure is monitoring highway conditions, and is prepared to deploy the province’s heavy equipment fleet, which includes approximately 350 truck plows, de-icing equipment and motor graders.

"Highway closures are expected in some areas, and Manitobans with travel plans are advised to stay home," continued the release. "Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow, and surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery."

Conditions will improve through the day Thursday as the system pulls eastward out of the region, and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.

"That high pressure will mean a return to sunshine by Good Friday, but temperatures will remain well below average to start Easter Weekend, with highs around -3 in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, and much warmer conditions further west, as a strong southerly flow develops, pushing temperatures into the 4 to 6 degree range," he said. "There are early indications, in the long-range forecast models, by early next week, we could see double-digits highs, above average for this time of year. that's certainly good news for winter weary Manitobans, but the question will be how that relatively rapid warm-up will impact the Spring melt and flood forecast, considering the additional snowfall this week, and moisture with it."