An already soggy Southern Manitoba became even soggier Saturday with another round of rainfall across the region, but many may welcome the rain considering the first snowfall of the season could arrive later this week.

Our PembinaValleyOnline.com Rainwatchers, as well as Environment Canada and the Manitoba Agriculture Weather Network, reported the following amounts for Saturday, October 5th:

Sprague - 9/10ths
Winkler, Elm Creek - 7/10ths
Manitou, Carman, Dominion City, Morden, Pilot Mound - 6/10ths
Altona, Emerson - ½ inch
Morris - 4/10ths

“It’s wet, there’s no two ways about it,” said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner Sunday morning. “Each rainfall event we see, now, simply adds to an already soggy situation, and unfortunately, there is no indication of a prolonged drying out period in the long range forecast models.”

Sumner noted, since September 1st, his rain gauge at his home in Altona has measured just over 250mm of rain (approximately 10 inches), which is well above average for the time-frame, even considering the Pembina Valley’s sometimes notorious wet Falls. According to climate data from Environment Canada, the average amount of rainfall from September 1st through October 5th would be approximately 50mm.

The region will experience a brief break from the wet conditions Sunday through Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Prairies allowing much warmer, drier and sunnier weather to take hold. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 17 to 20 range, but those above average temperatures won’t last with indications from the long range models suggesting the first snowfall of the season may be on the way mid to late this week.

“A couple of things will be at play,” explained Sumner. “An upper level low moving across the northern Prairies Tuesday to Thursday will create a trough in the Jet Stream, allowing shots of cold, Arctic air to move southward. An accompanying cold front will drop temperatures significantly from Tuesday to Wednesday in Southern Manitoba, as much as 10 to 15 degrees. In addition to that, there are signs a potent low will develop over Montana, and track across the Dakotas and Minnesota. This system will have a fair amount of moisture in it, and with a colder air-mass already in place, we may see the first snow of the season Thursday or Friday.”

Sumner stressed it’s still too early to talk about exact rain or snowfall totals, or the track the system will take. He also noted if snow does fall late in the week, much of it will melt, because ground surface temperatures are still well above freezing.

"You won't need the snowblower just yet, but that may not be much of a victory for sun starved Southern Manitobans," said Sumner with a chuckle.