After an extended stretch of above to well above average temperatures, and quite dry conditions, Old Man Winter is getting ready to remind us we’re not out of the wintery woods just yet, even though Spring has officially arrived on the calendar.

“It wouldn’t be Spring Break or Easter without the chance of a winter storm,” said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner with a chuckle.

Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for all of Southern Manitoba ahead of a potent low pressure system that will start impacting the province Monday night and throughout Tuesday.

“We’ve been keeping an eye on this system since mid last week when the forecast models started showing it could be a possibility,” explained Sumner. “For regions south of the Trans Canada highway we’re expecting very strong winds, and some combination of rain and snow, but at this point we’re not expecting significant snowfall.”

According to Environment Canada, Southern Manitoba will see a brief period of mild temperatures Monday as southerly winds pull in warm air ahead of the developing low. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper teens by mid day, followed by rapidly falling temperatures by evening and overnight behind a strong cold front.

“Based on current forecasts, we could see a 15 to 20 degree drop in temperatures from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon,” said Sumner. “We’re expecting day time highs Monday to be in the 13 degree range in the Southwestern corner of the province, and between 15 and 17 in the Red River Valley and Southeastern areas. On Tuesday, we’ll be lucky to reach -2, keeping in mind our average highs for this time of year are +4.”

The temperatures swing is only part of the story, with potentially damaging winds also in the cards. Southwestern areas will see strong to severe winds Monday afternoon with gusts as high as 90 km/h. In the Red River Valley winds will be strong too, with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h likely.

“Those gusty winds will remain through Monday night, and overnight, with windy conditions expected throughout Tuesday,” noted Sumner. “The gusts on Tuesday will be slightly less than Monday, but still quite breezy. The winds are expected to diminish during the evening hours Tuesday.”

As for snowfall, it appears areas south of the Number 1 Highway will miss the heaviest dumping, with only 2 to 5 cms expected at this point. Heavier snow is likely across the central Interlake where 5 to 10 cm will be possible. The heaviest snow will track from east of Lake Winnipeg northwards into central and northern Manitoba, where Winter Storm Watches are in effect.

“A couple of other things to keep in mind Monday night through Tuesday evening... visibility and wind chill,” added Sumner. “Once the flurries start falling, coupled with those very strong winds, visibility will diminish significantly and quickly, with the potential for near zero visibility depending on how heavy the snowfall is. Second to that, as temperatures fall and the winds pick up, wind chill values will ramp up, so be sure to dress accordingly if hitting the road.”

Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday night, with the cooler temperatures expected to only last a day or two.

“Right now we’re expecting above average conditions to return Thursday as high pressure builds in across the Prairies, bringing lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures once again,” said Sumner.